​First 7 Best Third-Place Spots Secured; Iran, Algeria, and Austria Battle for Final Slot

June 28 – Following the conclusion of Group K matches, DR Congo have officially secured a place in the Round of 32, where they will face England in the knockout stage.

Meanwhile, South Korea's chances of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams from Group A have dropped to 0%, confirming their elimination. Iran still hold hope but their qualification probability has slipped to 56%. They now need the Algeria vs Austria match in Group J to avoid a draw – because if Algeria and Austria draw, both teams will advance together and Iran will be edged out.

The latest probabilities for each group's third-placed team to finish among the top eight are as follows:

1. Group B – Bosnia and Herzegovina: 100%  
2. Group D – Paraguay: 100%  
3. Group E – Ecuador: 100%  
4. Group F – Sweden: 100%  
5. Group I – Senegal: 100%  
6. Group K – DR Congo: 100% (up 53.8 percentage points)  
7. Group L – Ghana: 100%  
8. Group G – Iran: 56% (down 23.3 percentage points)  
9. Group J – Algeria / Austria: 44% (down 9.1 percentage points)  
10. Group A – South Korea: 0% (down 21.4 percentage points)  
11. Group C – Scotland: 0%  
12. Group H – Uruguay: 0%

At this stage, seven of the eight best third-placed spots have been effectively locked in. The final remaining place is now a three-way battle between Iran and the Algeria/Austria pairing from Group J.