2024 Premier League Title Race: Latest Analysis After 24 Hours of Matchweek 37 Fixtures

In the last 24 hours, the 2023/24 Premier League title race delivered another dramatic twist, as Arsenal secured a dominant 5-0 away win over Brighton & Hove Albion to cut Manchester City’s lead at the top of the table to just one point heading into the final matchweek. City responded hours later with a 5-1 victory over already-relegated Luton Town, retaining their narrow advantage at the summit. With both teams pushing for the trophy, this deep analysis breaks down the stats, tactics and predictions for the final round of fixtures.

Match Statistics & Head-to-Head Comparison

All data included in this table is sourced from up-to-date metrics from real-time live football statistics, which captures the most accurate current form of both clubs ahead of the final matchweek. The data clearly shows Arsenal’s remarkable consistency in the run-in: 15 out of 15 possible points highlights that the side has not dropped a single point since early April, a run that has put them in position to challenge for the title. Their improved defensive record, with three clean sheets in five games, is a stark contrast to their inconsistent defending earlier in the season, a key adjustment from Mikel Arteta that has closed out tight games.

Manchester City still hold the attacking upper hand, even without two of their most influential players in De Bruyne and Stones. Their 3.1 xG per game over the last five matches is the highest of any side in the top flight, and their 64% average possession shows they are still controlling games despite key absences. Fans can track live injury updates and match odds for the final matchweek on live football match centers ahead of kickoff.

Expert Tactical Analysis

Arsenal have stuck with their core 4-3-3 formation throughout the run-in, with Arteta making one key adjustment that has unlocked their consistency: he has moved Declan Rice into a deeper single pivot role, allowing Martin Odegaard to push further forward into the penalty area. In their win over Brighton 24 hours ago, data shows Odegaard scored one goal and created three big chances, a direct result of this positional change. Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli have also stepped up in key moments: Saka scored two goals against Brighton, exploiting space left by Brighton’s attacking full backs to break quickly. Arteta’s high-pressing system worked to perfection against Brighton, cutting off their build-up and forcing 12 turnovers in the final third, a number that is 40% higher than Arsenal’s season average.

Pep Guardiola has adjusted his system to cover for the absences of John Stones and Kevin De Bruyne, switching to a 3-2-4-1 formation that uses Manuel Akanji in a hybrid midfield/defensive role. This adjustment has allowed Guardiola to keep his attacking width with Jeremy Doku and Jack Grealish, while Erling Haaland has benefited from increased service into the box. Haaland scored a hat-trick against Luton, taking his season tally to 35 league goals, and he has been able to exploit space created by City’s wide runners, who draw opposition defenders out of position. The key tactical challenge for the final matchweek is not between the two title contenders, but between each manager and their opponent: Arteta needs to break down a relegation-threatened Everton side that will defend deep to avoid dropping into the Championship, while Guardiola needs to break down a West Ham side that is still fighting for a Europa League spot.

Practical Predictions & Fan Tips

• Final Title Outcome Prediction: Manchester City will retain the Premier League title. Both sides will win their final fixtures, with City finishing on 91 points and Arsenal on 89 points. City’s experience in four consecutive title run-ins gives them a clear edge in high-pressure situations.
• Total Goals Prediction: Over 2.5 goals will be recorded in both title contender matches. Both sides need to attack from kickoff, and both have scored at least 5 goals in their most recent fixtures, making low-scoring games extremely unlikely.
• First Half Prediction: Arsenal will be leading at half time against Everton. Arteta has publicly stated his side will go all out from the first minute to avoid being caught out by a late City result, so they will push hard for early goals to kill off any tension.
• Player Prop Prediction: Erling Haaland will score at least one goal against West Ham. Haaland has scored 7 goals in his last 4 appearances against West Ham, and he is in excellent form heading into the final game of the season.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Arsenal still win the 2024 Premier League title?

Yes, Arsenal can still win the 2023/24 Premier League title. The side currently sits one point behind Manchester City, so if Arsenal win their final fixture against Everton and Manchester City drop points against West Ham, Arsenal will claim the title. This would be Arsenal’s first Premier League title since the Invincibles season in 2003/04.

How do injuries affect each title contender’s chances?

Arsenal are missing two key defensive players in Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu, but their first-choice center back pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes has been fully fit for the entire run-in, and they have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches. Manchester City are missing two of their most influential players in Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones, but Guardiola’s tactical adjustments have covered for these absences, and City have scored 12 goals in their last two matches.

What time do the final matchweek Premier League fixtures kick off?

All 10 final matchweek Premier League fixtures kick off at the same time: 4PM BST on Sunday 19 May 2024. This means both title contenders will know exactly what result they need throughout the 90 minutes of their final fixture.