TA Ranks Ballon d'Or Top 10: Kane, Olise, and Yamal in Top 3; Mbappé 4th, Messi 10th

On October 26, the winner of the new Ballon d'Or will be revealed. Last edition's winner, Ousmane Dembélé, is also among this year's 30 nominees. The honour is voted on by 100 professional journalists, who must rank the candidates from first to tenth based on key match performances, team honours and trophies won, as well as conduct on and off the pitch and fair play.

Below are The Athletic's top ten contenders for the Ballon d'Or:

1. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich / England)

The 2025-26 season was arguably the peak of Kane's career. Across the Bundesliga, Champions League, and World Cup, he scored a combined 56 goals and provided 8 assists. Adding 11 goals in Bayern's other cup competitions and 6 goals for England in World Cup qualifiers and friendlies, Kane played 65 matches in the calendar year, scoring 73 goals in total — truly staggering numbers.

The striker thrives on carrying his team in big matches. He contributed 6 goals across five Champions League knockout games, scored a hat-trick in the German Cup final, and netted twice against DR Congo in the World Cup group stage to help England advance, before contributing a goal and an assist against Mexico in the Round of 16.

However, a subdued performance in the World Cup semi-final against Argentina and a goal-and-assist display against PSG in the Champions League semi-final that still ended in elimination could be blemishes on his Ballon d'Or bid. Purely in terms of individual performance, this was one of Kane's most dominant seasons in years. In 2026-27, he has 9 goals in 10 games for Bayern and 6 goals in 4 Nations League games for England.

If this isn't Kane's year, when will it be?

2. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich / France)

Among players in Europe's top five leagues, excluding penalties, Olise's combined goals and assists across league, Champions League, and World Cup football ranks at the very top. He registered 20 goals and 32 assists in 53 matches, including 7 assists at a single World Cup — a tournament record. In addition, the 24-year-old added 5 goals in 9 qualifiers and friendlies for France, including a hat-trick against Northern Ireland.

Olise's style is fluid and free, daring yet tactically disciplined, and highly entertaining. In most matches for Bayern and France, he has been the team's first or second-best player. Whether from open play or set pieces, he consistently creates chances while also tracking back and contributing to his team's build-up.

Like Kane, a lack of team trophies in the biggest competitions will hinder his Ballon d'Or chances. But his 2025-26 performances were enough to prove he belongs among Europe's elite attackers. In the new season, he has 9 goals in 10 games for Bayern and 4 goals in 4 games for France.

3. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)

Yamal made a huge breakthrough in 2025-26, taking a qualitative leap in performance compared to the previous season.

In 2024-25, he registered 14 goals and 16 assists in 48 La Liga and Champions League games; last season, in just 38 appearances, he scored 22 goals and provided 15 assists. Despite the surge in output, his minutes were restricted by injuries: pubalgia at the start of the season and a hamstring problem towards the end.

The impact of those injuries was especially evident at the World Cup, where he scored only once — in the group stage against Saudi Arabia. The 19-year-old won a penalty in the semi-final against France but did not produce the dominant tournament display many had expected in North America. Remarkably, Yamal was still not even 20 by the end of the season, making him an early frontrunner for the 2027 Ballon d'Or. In 2026-27, he has 9 goals and 10 assists in 11 games for Barça, plus 4 goals in 4 games for Spain during the recent international break.

4. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid / France)

Mbappé delivered another explosive World Cup, scoring 10 goals to win the Golden Boot for the second consecutive World Cup and becoming the all-time leading scorer in World Cup finals history with 22 goals in 22 matches.

Beyond the national team, he was also in scintillating form for Real Madrid, scoring 40 goals in 42 La Liga and Champions League appearances. In a season of internal turmoil at Madrid — Xabi Alonso at the start and Arbeloa by the end — the 27-year-old was virtually the team's only consistent bright spot.

Despite the spectacular individual numbers, two consecutive seasons without a major club trophy, plus a fourth-place World Cup finish, will likely block his path to this year's Ballon d'Or. Under José Mourinho in 2026-27, Mbappé has started fiercely with 11 goals in 11 games, but Madrid's structural and tactical issues remain.

5. Rodri (Manchester City → Barcelona / Spain)

Rodri's last season can be divided into two phases. After an eight-month layoff with an ACL injury, he was below par upon his initial return and then suffered a series of hamstring and knee problems that kept him out of 11 of City's first 17 Premier League games.

From early 2026, Rodri gradually rediscovered his pre-injury level. In Pep Guardiola's final season at City, the team shifted towards more direct transitions, and Rodri was the crucial foundation in midfield. In March and April, he starred in the league match against Arsenal and the League Cup final, and delivered a high-level display against Chelsea in the FA Cup, despite being troubled by a groin issue.

At the World Cup, the 30-year-old midfielder returned to his peak, controlling Spain's rhythm. That disciplined and talented side went on to win the World Cup, and Rodri was awarded the World Cup Golden Ball as the tournament's best player.

Although the midfielder, now at Barcelona, played only 2,185 minutes for City last season — roughly 24 full matches — his World Cup heroics will significantly alter how voters assess his season. He has adapted well since moving to Catalonia and scored his first goal for the Blaugrana in the 5-2 win over Betis.

6. Erling Haaland (Manchester City / Norway)

2025-26 was Haaland's second-best season at Manchester City, with 27 Premier League goals.

The 26-year-old striker's creativity improved markedly, providing 8 assists — equal to his assist totals from the previous two seasons combined. He added 8 more goals in the Champions League and 3 goals plus 1 assist in the FA Cup-winning run, directly contributing to 47 goals in 52 club matches.

On the international stage, he scored 13 goals in 7 World Cup qualifiers and friendlies, including five in one match against Moldova.

The World Cup became a career highlight. Haaland and Martin Ødegaard led Norway to the quarter-finals, with Haaland scoring 7 goals from 13 shots on target in 5 games, showing elite finishing in key moments to help Ståle Solbakken's defensively solid Norway advance. Across club and country, he was involved in 69 goals over the season.

In 2026-27, Haaland has continued his hot form with 12 goals in 9 games for City, who remain unbeaten in the Premier League, and 3 goals in 4 games for Norway. To date, he has 65 goals in 59 appearances for Norway.

7. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain / Georgia)

PSG's back-to-back Ligue 1 and Champions League triumphs were built on collective strength rather than a single star's explosion. Injuries plagued the squad, and at times the defence and midfield overshadowed the star-studded attack.

Marquinhos, Pacho, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, and João Neves all performed well, but inconsistent World Cup displays affected how they are viewed. Dembélé was excellent in the Champions League but injuries limited his combined league and European minutes to under 2,000. Fabián Ruiz, a World Cup winner with Spain, was sidelined long-term with a knee injury.

Georgia's failure to qualify for the World Cup actually helped Kvaratskhelia's Ballon d'Or case. The 25-year-old was rotated within the squad, playing 2,623 minutes across Ligue 1 and the Champions League, scoring 18 goals and providing 10 assists. Compared to others on this list, those numbers are not spectacular, but he consistently delivered in key matches.

He contributed 4 goals and 2 assists across the Champions League Round of 16 and quarter-finals; added 2 goals and 1 assist in the semi-final against Bayern; and in the final against Arsenal, it was he who won the penalty that helped PSG equalise.

Even in a World Cup year, his Champions League performances carry significant weight. Had Kvaratskhelia and PSG started this season perfectly, his standing might have risen further. However, the team have won only 4 of their first 7 Ligue 1 matches, and Kvaratskhelia has 2 goals and 1 assist in 559 minutes across 10 appearances.

8. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich / Colombia)

Vincent Kompany's Bayern scored 184 goals in 55 matches last season, and that attacking feast owed much to Luis Díaz in the front three.

Díaz's tireless off-ball running and pressing created space for Kane and Olise, helping both enjoy career-best seasons. The 29-year-old winger's own numbers were impressive too: 22 goals and 17 assists in 44 Bundesliga and Champions League appearances.

Díaz and Colombia's World Cup journey was full of ups and downs. They beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in the opener, with Díaz contributing a goal and an assist, but the team failed to take their chances thereafter. Before the World Cup, he had 3 goals and 3 assists in 10 qualifiers and friendlies.

Díaz started the new season slowly but has gradually warmed up, with 5 goals and 1 assist in 8 club appearances.

9. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid / England)

Bellingham was England's standout performer in the World Cup knockout stages. He scored twice quickly against Mexico, added two more against Norway in the quarter-final — including the extra-time winner — struggled in the semi-final defeat to Argentina, and scored his seventh goal of the tournament in the third-place match against France.

Bellingham's value goes beyond goals. His intelligent movement, excellent game understanding, and active off-ball running allowed Kane to drop into midfield and dictate play. He was equally diligent defensively, especially when England were reduced to ten men late on against Mexico, when he committed fully to defending and provided crucial support.

At club level, however, this was Bellingham's second consecutive disappointing season. He suffered a shoulder injury early in the campaign and a hamstring problem in early 2026. Amid Real Madrid's inconsistent form in La Liga and the Champions League, Bellingham managed only 8 goals and 5 assists in 37 matches — a clear drop from 23 goals and 11 assists in 2023-24 and 12 goals and 11 assists the following season.

He can only hope voters remember his World Cup highlights. Under Mourinho at Madrid in 2026-27, Bellingham has started reasonably with 3 goals and 3 assists in 11 games, plus 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 games for England during the international break.

10. Lionel Messi (Inter Miami / Argentina)

Can a 39-year-old Messi still be ranked among the world's top ten? The question is debatable, but for this Ballon d'Or cycle, he fully deserves a place in the top ten.

This World Cup was seen as the swansong of Messi's international career. He scored 8 goals from 18 shots on target and provided 4 assists for Argentina, and was involved in both goals in the semi-final comeback against England. Across the tournament, he created 25 goalscoring chances — the highest single-tournament tally by any player in the last three World Cups.

In his international farewell match against Benin, Messi scored once and assisted Otamendi and Nico Paz in a 3-0 win.

His club numbers were equally spectacular. In the final 16 MLS matches (including the play-off title decider), Messi led Inter Miami to the title with 17 goals and 19 assists, averaging 5.5 shots and 3.6 chances created per 90 minutes.

In the first 14 MLS matches of 2026, he recorded 12 goals and 8 assists. Add 2 goals in 2 Leagues Cup games and 5 goals and 3 assists in 6 World Cup qualifiers and friendlies for Argentina, and across the voting period Messi directly contributed to 78 goals (44 scored, 34 assisted) in 46 club and international matches.

After the World Cup, he registered 13 goals and 6 assists in 19 MLS matches; in September against Cruz Azul, he scored once and assisted once in a 2-0 win.

Although some of Argentina's and Inter Miami's opponents were weaker than those faced by other candidates, those numbers and his stunning World Cup performances are enough to earn Messi a place on this list.

Messi holds 8 Ballons d'Or, the most in history. A ninth triumph is unlikely, but if he were to win it, it would be the perfect ending to a legendary season.

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