Sevilla vs Alavés Prediction: Nervión Fortress to Inflict Further Misery on Slumping Visitors

Sevilla VS Alaves    Livescore / H2H stats and Live Streaming
Time:07-11-2026 04:00 Saturday

【Strength Comparison】

Sevilla sit sixth in La Liga with 17 points from 11 matches, a record of five wins, two draws, and four losses . Luis García Plaza's side have been inconsistent but possess a clear attacking threat, scoring 17 goals at an average of 1.55 per match . Their home form offers encouragement: Sevilla have won three times at the Sánchez-Pizjuán this season and are on a run of 12 consecutive matches scoring across all competitions . Akor Adams has been prolific with 10 goals, while Rubén Vargas has contributed six assists .

Alavés, by contrast, are in crisis. Quique Sánchez Flores' side sit 11th with 12 points, but their recent form is dire: seven matches without a victory, comprising two draws and five defeats . The 6-1 thrashing at Barcelona was one of their heaviest defeats in over six years, and they have taken just two points from a possible 21 in recent weeks . Away from home, Alavés have gone five consecutive matches without a win and are on a run of two consecutive defeats .

【Head-to-Head】

The historical record at the Sánchez-Pizjuán is remarkably favourable to Sevilla. Across 15 previous La Liga visits, Alavés have lost seven, drawn five, and won just two . More recently, however, the Basque side have proven stubborn visitors: they have taken points from four of their last six trips to Nervión, including 1-1 draws in each of the last two seasons .

The most recent encounter, in February 2026, ended 1-1, with Sow and Toni Martínez scoring . Alavés' last victory at Sevilla came in January 2024, a 3-2 triumph during Quique Sánchez Flores' previous tenure at the club . Sevilla's last home win over Alavés was on the final day of the 2020-21 season, courtesy of a late Papu Gómez goal .

【Key Factors】

Sevilla's injury and suspension concerns: Luis García Plaza will be without Peque, who has a hamstring injury, and Manu Bueno, who is suspended after his red card against Getafe . Marcao and Miguel Sierra remain unavailable. However, there is positive news: Isaac Romero, Sevilla's top La Liga scorer with three goals, has returned to full training and could feature, while Kike Salas and Youssouf Fofana trained normally after knocks .

Alavés' defensive fragility: The visitors' recent defensive record is alarming. Conceding six against Barcelona exposed structural weaknesses that Sevilla's attack, led by Adams and Vargas, should be capable of exploiting. Alavés have conceded in four consecutive matches and are without long-term absentees Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez, both of whom have cruciate ligament injuries . Quique is expected to deploy a five-man defence featuring Ángel, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini, and Abde, with Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé leading the line .

The managerial dynamic: Quique Sánchez Flores returns to a club where he briefly coached in 2023-24, and he faced Sevilla 17 times in his career with a record of four wins, four draws, and nine defeats . Luis García Plaza has faced Quique four times, recording two wins, one draw, and one defeat . The tactical familiarity between the two managers adds an intriguing subplot, but current form heavily favours the Sevilla boss.

Sevilla's scoring streak vs Alavés' away drought: Sevilla have scored in 12 consecutive matches and in five consecutive home fixtures . Alavés, meanwhile, have scored in four consecutive matches but have conceded in the same run, suggesting a potentially open contest. However, their away record of five matches without a win makes a clean sheet for Sevilla plausible.

【Expert Prediction】

The consensus strongly favours Sevilla. RMC Sport's Christophe Pleynet predicts a Sevilla victory at odds of 1.82, citing the return to home soil after the Getafe defeat and Alavés' seven-match winless run . Sports Mole's data analysis gives Sevilla a 47.03% win probability, against Alavés at 26.91% and a draw at 26.13% . The most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12.3%), followed by a 1-0 Sevilla win (10.9%) and a 2-1 Sevilla victory (9.52%) . APWin projects both teams to score, with the most probable scoreline also 1-1 . FOX Sports lists Sevilla at -105, with Alavés at +303 .

The balance of evidence supports a narrow Sevilla victory. The hosts possess superior attacking quality, a formidable historical record at this venue, and face an opponent in the midst of a severe slump. Alavés' ability to grind out draws at Nervión in recent seasons offers a note of caution, but this iteration of Quique's side appears more fragile than those that held Sevilla previously. The return of Isaac Romero provides a timely boost, and Sevilla's scoring streak should prove too much for a defence that conceded six last weekend.

Prediction: Sevilla 2-1 Alavés

Sevilla should claim a vital three points, though the margin may be narrow. Alavés have shown resilience at this venue in recent years, and their attacking duo of Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé possesses enough quality to trouble a Sevilla defence that has conceded 19 goals in 11 league matches . However, the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities and Sevilla's home scoring run make a home victory the most probable outcome. Adams and Vargas should find the net, while Romero could make a decisive cameo from the bench. A win lifts Sevilla to 20 points and deepens Alavés' relegation concerns heading into the international break.